Confessions of a Bar Flunker Part 10

From whom would you learn the most valuable lessons: from the bar flunker or from the bar topnotcher?

This is the continuing confession of a bar flunker, and towards the end, I will reveal how, why, and how I knew in advance I flunked the 2011 bar given that the Supreme Court has not yet officially released the bar results. That’s for you to wait, and for the Supreme Court to investigate.

Topnotchers

Unfortunately, the grades of this new era are no longer comparable to the grades of the pure essay format such as those of Roxas (1913, 92%, the first bar topnotcher); Macapagal (1936, 89.85%); Marcos (1939, 98.01% the highest ever recorded but later reduced to 92.35% after an oral examination by the Supreme Court itself); Salonga and Diokno (1944, the only topnotchers to tie at 93.5%); Regalado (1954, 96.7%, the official highest grade since Marcos’ initial grade); Ponferrada (2001, 93.8%) and Maneja (2002, 92.9%) the latter two having the highest grades in the last 54 years since Regalado. Gilberto Teodoro Jr., the presidential candidate against Benigno Aquino III, obtained 86.185% as the topnotcher in 1989. Actually, there is a story as to why Teodoro placed first, and not second. Maybe one day I will tell you about it.

I do have a story about bar topnotchers but I will share them with you on a separate occasion.

I predict the 2011 topnotcher to obtain a grade of 95 while the 20^th placer about 90. Yes, I know you are wondering why only 11% hurdled Taxation and yet at the same time I am predicting a very high grade for the topnotchers.

Well, I already told you, topnotchers are freaks of nature; their performances are totally disconnected from the poor performance of the rest of the 5,989 bar 2011 examinees. Only this time, with the advent of the new format, the scoring is more transparent and less whimsical because 60% are from the very transparent MCQ.

Previously, I have mapped out the topnotcher strategy: A bar grade of 90 can be obtained with these combinations: MCQ 90%, WritLA 90%; MCQ 88%, WritLA 93%; MCQ 86.6%, WritLA 95%.

To obtain a grade of 95, here are possible combinations: MCQ 98.3%, WritLA 90%; MCQ 95%, WritLA 95%; MCQ 93.7%, WritLA 97%; MCQ 93%, WritLA 98%.

Again, with a perfect grade in WritLA of 100%, which is actually easy to obtain as I have explained before, you will only need an MCQ of 91.67% to obtain a final bar grade of 95.00

Therefore, the key is to obtain a perfect grade in WritLA.

Probability

After strategizing for the topnotcher, let us look at some people who gamble their way to the bar.

If you just graduated from law school in 2011, and you enrolled in a bar review center for 6 months, and you took the bar in the same year 2011, what is your probability of passing the bar?

For a new graduate, who enrolls in a review center, and immediately takes the bar, the probability of passing is 20.26%. This based on the actual adjusted proportion of those who hurdled the previous year’s bar, the 2010 bar. This means that in a room of 40 people, only 8 will pass. Are you one of the eight?

In the last 5, 10, and 20 years, on the average, only 23.79%, 25.10%, and 24.8% respectively, hurdled the bar, as adjusted. In the last two decades the hurdle rate ranged from 16.59% in 1999 to 39.63% in 1998.

By adjusted, it means the Supreme Court did not strictly impose the minimum examinee’s average grade of 75. If it does, then even lesser candidates will have passed the bar.

According to former Chief Justice Artemio Panganiban, of the 5,626 who took the 2007 bar, only about 5% (less than 300) obtained the passing grade of 75%. However, the Supreme Court lowered the standard to 70% and the disqualification rate in three subjects (civil, labor and criminal law) from 50% to 45%. Thus, 1,289 candidates, or 22.91%, passed.

By lowering the minimum grade by just a single point, from 75 to 74, hundreds of candidates will be benefited. This is the reason why almost all your friends have a bar grade of exactly 75.

And now we arrive at a conclusion: There is a great probability that you will not become a lawyer, and that is 80%; you only have 20% of becoming a new lawyer. The deck is stacked against you; don’t gamble in your preparation for the bar.

Suicide

Anyway, what I wanted to establish was the probability of passing the bar which is 20.26% for a fresh graduate, who enrolls in a review center for six months, and immediately takes the bar that same year.

This means 12 hours per day of analyzing and memorizing laws and cases for six long months, and attending four hour per night of lectures at the review center, and then attend the pre-week bar review for last minute lectures, and last minute tips and cramming in between the bar Sundays. This is the normal route.

A bar topnotcher who later became a law professor was quoted as saying that the surest formula to pass or even top the Bar exams is to shun procrastination. “The preparation really begins in law school,” the topnotcher said. “You do not prepare for the Bar during the six months you are reviewing. That’s suicide. Preparation comes earlier on, during the time that you are taking the four-year course.”

Diminishing probabilities

Next case, what is the passing probability for a fresh graduate but does not enroll in a review center but takes the exam the same year of graduation? What’s that again? He doesn’t enroll in a review center? How could he remember all those laws, doctrines, cases in all eight subjects in thousands of pages he took in the last four years? The normal route is already a failing proposition of 20.26% probability. This guy is skipping the review center and all the new materials and cases? This is a case of legal suicide. The probability is reduced to say, 15%. Why would a sane would-be lawyer lower the chances of an already low chance?

Then take this next case. What if the candidate graduated two years before, doesn’t enroll in a review center, and just takes the bar? A two-year lay-off is dangerous because you must remember what you studied in your freshman year in law school, which in effect was 6 years before. Can you remember the different kinds of delivery of property like tradition brevi manu? This is even a worse kind of suicide. Say, the probability is now drastically reduced to 10%. Crazy guy.

But wait, there’s another case. Another crazy guy, graduated 5 years ago, no review center, takes the bar. Let’s grant him a probability 5%.

Another crazy guy who graduated a decade ago, yes, 10 years ago, again, no review center, takes the bar. Let’s say his probability is 3%.

But then, the world is full of crazy people. Here comes another person who graduated 15 years ago, doesn’t enroll in a review center, then just takes the bar. Where did all these crazy people come from? His probability of becoming a lawyer is 1%, yes, only 1%.

Now comes the ultimate crazy person. He graduated 22 years ago, did not enroll into the fourth year of law school to refresh himself, did not enroll in a bar review center where he could have had six months of different professional lecturers with up to the minute doctrines and review notes and materials, did not buy new books and reviewers, did not undertake a self-review, and did not even plan to take the bar until three days before the bar. Isn’t it amazing we live in the same world that produces a crazy guy like this?

We are very certain of his probability of hurdling the bar. The fresh graduate normal route scenario has a probability of 20.26%. A fresh graduate with no review expects a reduced probability of 15%. A two-year lay-off deserves a probability of 10%. A 5-year lay-off means a probability of only 5%. A 10-year lay-off means 3%, and a 15-year lay-off entitles the examinee to a probability of a very low 1%. Remember, that even with a 20.26% probability, it means that most likely, taking the normal route, you will not become a lawyer. You will most likely win a bet whether or not your friend will become a lawyer.

Zero

Going back to our crazy guy, we are absolutely certain of his probability of becoming a lawyer: zero.

Could such a crazy person really exist? Could such person really do a last chance power drive?

Yes, he does exist. I know such a person. I know such a crazy person. And I tell you, from what I know, he is very crazy. Towards the end of this series, I will share with you his story and the lessons we could learn from his crazy experience. 

-          End of part 10 –

(barflunker@gmail.com)

"Don't worry, my knowledge of the law hasn't decreased just because I flunked the bar."

                                          - Bar Flunker

Table of Contents

Confessions of a Bar Flunker

Part 1

Part 2 (intentionally not uploaded at this time)

Part 3

Part 4

Part 5

Part 6 (intentionally not uploaded at this time)

Part 7 (intentionally not uploaded at this time)

Part 8

Part 9

Part 10

Part 11 (intentionally not uploaded at this time)

Part 12
Part 13 (Epilogue; written after the official release of the results)

Note: Due to very personal details contained therein, I have withheld some chapters. Please drop by once in while to see if i have finally released the intentionally omitted parts.

Update: Sometime in December 2011 (just one month after the bar and long before the official results were released on Feb 29, 2012), I sent sample chapters of these Confessions to a newspaper of national circulation for possible publication but for several reasons they did not.