Confessions of a Bar Flunker Part 12

From whom would you learn the most valuable lessons: from the bar flunker or from the bar topnotcher?

Under different circumstances, you wouldn’t have been reading my confessions as a bar flunker. 

The presidential candidate

We have a joke among our friends, if I took the bar exam right after my graduation, then Gilbert Teodoro wouldn’t have been first placer. I would have been first, he, second. Of course, I would have failed that bar, but then it’s a good joke to have during coffee sessions especially since that email I got from him many years ago, which I told you about earlier.

The Dean’s prediction

Dean Froilan Bacungan is the 7^th Dean of the UP College of Law. He is also renowned labor law and constitutional law expert and a bar lecturer.

In 2006, while Dean Bacungan was lecturing in the province, my brother who was attending his lecturers happened to be in the same elevator with him. My brother knew that our uncle was under Dean Bacungan in labor law decades ago, so he seized the moment.

“Sir, by any chance do you remember Atty ___ who was under you in UP,” my brother said.

Upon hearing the surname, Dean Bacungan said, “Is that the guy who writes?”

My brother, “No, sir, the one who writes is my brother. I was referring to our uncle. The guy you are referring to is my brother.”

Dean Bacungan said, “Oh, is that your brother? I know that guy. He is a good freethinker. If you write just like him, you could be a bar topnotcher. Are you a free tonight?”

My brother, without realizing how opportune that offer was, begged off due a scheduled meeting.

When I read about this anecdote, I was grinning from ear to ear. Here’s the much revered Dean of UP Law, whom I have never met, one of the architects of the labor code of this country, and he instantly recognized my name, upon hearing it from some stranger in faraway province.

It took a while to sink in. Instant name recall from a famous dean of law, with the prediction of having the capability to be a bar topnotcher.

This is just one of those proofs. You don’t know me, and that’s make me an unknown. Yet, a famous man knows me. And that makes me famous. I am the most famous unknown.

As I said earlier, under different circumstances, you wouldn’t have been reading the “Confessions of a Bar Flunker” from me. You would have been reading “The Cognovit of a  Bar Topnotcher.”

I did not predict that. Dean Bacungan, did. Thank you, Dean Bacungan for appreciating my freethinking ideas.

Sadly, for now, I am facing the Supreme Court as a bar flunker, not as a topnotcher. Yet, somehow, I know, nature has a way of straightening out things.
Bar topnotcher justice
Again, under different circumstances, things would have been different. Today, an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court who had been a first placer in the bar, is a fortunate purchaser of a book compilation of my freethinking commentaries. Of course, he purchased that many many years ago even before he was a member of judiciary.
Things like this make me think. A bar topnotcher going out of his way to purchase my book, and yet here I am facing the axe as a bar flunker? 
Where is the justice in that?
Mystery lady

My bet for 2011 bar topnotcher was that mystery lady I mentioned earlier who submits almost 45 minutes before the bell rings; and that’s for every subject. She shattered the confidence of everyone in the room. For the WritLA, I glanced at her paper and her handwriting was very clean and clear. I would be looking out for her name. Her first name’s third letter is R, and her surname’s second letter is A.

Self-rating

 Earlier, I shared with you my quantitative analysis of the subject weights, and their leverage effects.

I also shared with you my technique of marking out the “absolutely certain” choices from the “uncertain” choices. I marked those problems with uncertain answers so that I could go back to them if I had time. Also, this is a good way to keep me honest. How sure was I of my answers?

For example, in my political law, I had about 15 uncertain answers so my self-score is 85 raw points. But maybe 5 of the 15 will turn out to be in my favor? Thus my score would be 90 instead of 85 for political law. This is just for illustration. 
But then, just like with other aspects of my life, there are things I believed I was absolutely certain of but turned out to be false certainty. The 90 I was certain of, might, in reality be only 74, in which case I fail.

Thus, for political law, my worst case scenario was 80, the base case scenario was 85, and the best case scenario was 89. Again, to repeat, that worst case of 80 could in reality be as low as 74, all of these over the perfect raw score of 100.

I then proceeded to encode these figures in the bar grading spreadsheet I created.

I did the same for the other subjects.
Earlier, I predicted the 1st place to be around 95%, while the 20th placer to be around 90%.

With the scenarios above, I tried to be as realistic as possible based on my definition of "certain" and "uncertain" answers.
The best case scenario the simply that, the best case. I calculated my self-score based on that.
The worst case scenario is based on the my "uncertain" answers, with the uncertainty tilted against me. My self-score is 77.4%
With the above worst case scenario, did I really expect my lowest grade as 77.4%? 
The answer is no. It can still go down to maybe 73% or 74%? 
Why? It's because, my "certain" is not really certain. For example, if the problem was really an exception to the exception that I wasn't aware of, then I would have marked it as "certain" when in fact it was supposed to be "uncertain."
Therefore, I could still brand myself as a bar flunker.
Was the bar easy or hard?
Personally, I think the bar was easy. Yet, I failed. You have to go back to Part 11 for my excuses.
Bar Flunker

This has been the question you’ve been waiting all this time. How did I know in advance that I flunked the 2011 bar exam when the Supreme Court has not yet officially released the results?

Let me answer you right now.

(the rest of this chapter is available only upon special request by email.)

- The End of the Confessions of a Bar Flunker -
             (barflunker@gmail.com)

"Don't worry, my knowledge of the law hasn't decreased just because I flunked the bar."

                                          - Bar Flunker

Table of Contents

Confessions of a Bar Flunker

Part 1

Part 2 (intentionally not uploaded at this time)

Part 3

Part 4

Part 5

Part 6 (intentionally not uploaded at this time)

Part 7 (intentionally not uploaded at this time)

Part 8

Part 9

Part 10

Part 11 (intentionally not uploaded at this time)

Part 12
Part 13 (Epilogue; written after the official release of the results)

Note: Due to very personal details contained therein, I have withheld some chapters. Please drop by once in while to see if i have finally released the intentionally omitted parts.

Update: Sometime in December 2011 (just one month after the bar and long before the official results were released on Feb 29, 2012), I sent sample chapters of these Confessions to a newspaper of national circulation for possible publication but for several reasons they did not.